Predictions for CCs during the economic crisis

Across the country, community colleges are facing a plethora of challenges: budget cuts, tuition increases, ballooning enrollment. Below are three facts an my predictions for their consequences. Next, I gaze into the crystal ball for two medium-term predictions and their consequences.


1. HS graduates flock to CCs. Facing university-price sticker shock and shrunken college savings plans, new HS grads are picking community colleges in record numbers.
Consequences:
- Transfer programs will balloon.
- Average age of transfer students will fall.
- Universities will be unprepared to accept a wave of transfer students which will begin in 2010.


2. Unemployed and underemployed workers swell CC ranks. It's a cliché because it's true; workers seek improved skills during crappy economic times.
Consequences:
- Career and tech programs will fill up and average ages will rise.
- Waiting lists will become common.
- Proportion of CC students with bachelor's degrees will rise as 'educated' students seek more useful skills.


3. Cost becomes increasingly important factor in student choice.
Consequences:
- CC tuition will increase by 5% on average nationwide.
- Pell Grants will increase faster than CC tuition in absolute terms (thank you, Obama).
- Pell Grants will increase slower than university tuition in absolute terms.
- 80+ private universities will close before fall 2009.


Predictions for the medium term (1-4 years)

4. CCs will neglect investment. How can they invest during budget cuts? Why invest when you have all the students you can handle?
Consequences:
- State funding for technology will shrink.
- For-profits will continue to eat CC's lunch in online learning.
- CCs will suffer when the economy rebounds.


5. Foreign countries will seek to reproduce the community college model in their countries.
Consequences:
- International consulting gigs for your scribe.