Monday, January 26, 2009

NYC CCs big idea - is it really new?


New York City's community college system is getting some attention for a new program. Part of the vast City University or NY (CUNY) system, NY's six community colleges began the Accelerated Studies in Associates Program (ASAP), a program which includes:
- Free tuition, books, and bus passes
- First pick for classes
- Twice-monthly counseling (mandatory)
- Summer orientation program (mandatory)
- Need remedial education? This isn't for you

ASAP has been very successful thus far: retention and GPA's are up, dropouts are down as compared to other students who don't require remedial classes. That's great news, this model surely works.

But is the model new? It doesn't appear so - it looks a lot like CC honors programs across the country. The NYC ASAP program proves that robust academic and financial support plus new student orientation helps student achievement. But we knew all that, didn't we?

Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge supporter of increased support for any select group of community college students. How about we give it a try for all community college students?

Saturday, January 24, 2009

South Seattle CC hires ethically-challenged Oertli as interm Prez


Gary Oertli: a face only a gangster could love.

Despite past ethical violations, Gary Oertli was hired as interm president by South Seattle Community College. While president of Shoreline CC (1995-2001), Oertli improperly used his position as SCC president to funnel state funds to a personal friend, Paul Mauel - founder of e-Werks. Seattle P-I (8/25/01) The charges led to a $40,000 fine in 2003.

[Oertli] promot[ed] a local software company because of his personal relationship with its founder. Six months after a $350,000 contract was signed between Shoreline and e-Werkz in December 1999 to provide online services, SCC President Gary Oertli left the college to work for the start-up. SCC was e-Werkz's first customer... In 2000, e-Werkz received $1.4 million from Shoreline, Bellevue and Spokane community colleges in return for 30-year contracts to provide integrated online course registration and bookstore services.

When e-Werkz failed to supply SCC with the product it had promised, e-Werkz founder Paul Mauel asked Oertli to alter the bid. Shoreline CC was forced to spend over $100K to fix the technical problems left in e-Werkz wake.

One year after signing the contract with e-Werkz, Oertli resigned as president of Shoreline CC, and accepted a position with Mauel's online company, e-Werkz, now Softcos, under an $184,000 salary in addition to an $80,000 signing bonus. Seattle P-I, (4/12/03).

My home institution was also sullied by this affair.

In 2003, while president of the University of Washington alumni board, Oertli was fined $40,000 for the his slippery ethics, the largest fine ever leveled on an individual by the WA State Executive Ethics Board.

Now, South Seattle CC has hired Oertli is interm president. Here's hoping that either Oertli cleans up his act, or SSCC finds a permanent president soon.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

The second lady is the first CC professor


America's new second lady, Dr. Jill Biden, has long taught English at the Delaware Technical Community College. Just because she's the second lady doesn't mean she's going to be able to pull a bunch of special favors for CCs. But having a CC advocate in the White House can't hurt.

By the way, she's looking for a gig.

DC finally gets a CC

According to reports, Washington DC will open its first community college, fall 2009. The new community college will fall under the rubric of the University of the District of Columbia (UDC). UDC will turn SEU into a "workforce training oriented" CC, and UDC will become a "flagship university" and raise tuition (somebody has to pay for the flag.)

Press accounts are sketchy on the precise details (here, here, and here). But it appears that the public University of the District of Columbia will take over (or merge) with DC's private Southeastern University (SEU).

By all accounts, SEU was failing and flailing; it was forced to discontinued a number of programs this fall.
Rather uniquely, SEU offered associate degrees in addition to bachelors and masters degrees.

Questions remain about UDC's ability to take a private university and turn it into a community college. Neither institution is centrally located within DC - might they both offer community college classes?

Whatever the case, a CC in DC is long overdue. To my knowledge DC is the only state (um, pseudo state) in America without a community college system. Glad to see that change.

Final note: as I predicted (#3), another private university bites the dust. Not to gloat...

Monday, January 19, 2009

Lead us well, President Obama


The American people have chosen, and wisely. The Emissary will be watching closely to make sure Obama honors and supports this great nation's finest institutions: community colleges.

For now, Americans can stand tall after an eight-year slouch. We can again hold our heads high when we go abroad. And once again, we can savor the feeling of being cool.

Lead us well, BHO.

Saturday, January 17, 2009

WA stimulus package - $364m for education buildings



In this time of budget crisis, all American politicians have unified around the simple creed: we must build things. We could debate the macroeconomic merit of such a creed, but educational institutions across the nation will definitely benefit from the consensus. As with state education budget cuts, educational building priorities will reveal the relative importance each state places on CC education.

The Emissary believes that investing in community colleges is essential, particularly during the current economic crisis. Philosophers are great, but America most needs 21st-century skills: principally technology, 'green', computer, and health care skills. Those skills are most efficiently gained at community colleges.

WA Gov. Gregoire proposed a deluge of spending (about $1.2 billion) for construction, infrastructure, and unemployment insurance. Higher education received the lion's share of the construction money ($364m or 85%). Virtually all the money went to classroom buildings.

Some breakdown of the governor's proposal.

Community colleges hold their own
WA CCs won 38% of all new construction money, or $140m. That was slightly less than the $142m won by WSU and UW (39%), but way more than the $82m won by regional universities.

Project size and college type
Research universities won just three projects, but the average project tops $47m (compared to $20m and $14m for CC and regional projects, respectively). The largest project was UW's Molecular Engineering building ($69.6m). The smallest research university project was larger than the largest CC project (Spokane CC's $32.3 Tech Ed building)

Winners and losers
The UW system was the largest single recipient of funds, with $104m in projects, followed by the CC district of Spokane ($66.4m). Only 5 of the WA's 34 CCs won any money at all (both Green River and Columbia Basin snagged big projects; Everett won $2m for "infrastructure"). Evergreen State was the only 4-year not to win any projects, though WSU main Pullman campus didn't either (WSU Vancouver did). EWU Cheney won just $6.4m in "Minor Works". The Westside received 37% of the funding, the Eastside won 37%.

Close to home
My colleges - CCs of Spokane - did particularly well, earning 23% of all funds designated for high ed, and 61% of the community colleges pie. CCS has designated vast energies to winning new buildings and has been remarkably successful. Sasquatch nation is pleased.

Unless otherwise mentioned, percentages refer to the percent of construction money designated for higher education.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

University of Phoenix in trouble?

Apollo Group (parent company of U of Phoenix) has recently been sued, which may endanger the companies business model.

Apollo's trouble stems from default rates on its Title IX loans. Title IX loans are federally guaranteed. In order to maintain good standing with the feds, colleges must limit student defaults (the so-called Cohort Default Rate), among other requirements.

The plaintiffs were former UofP students and Title IX loan recipients who dropped out of classes after the deadline for getting all their money back. Instead of receiving payment from the Title IX loan, the UofP returned the money to the feds and sent collection agencies after the students for the money they owed (receivables.)

From the article: Why would the UOP surrender cash in hand that is rightfully theirs, in exchange for a hard-to-collect receivable, plus collection costs and risks? Why would UOP intervene in a lender/borrower relationship that they actually helped facilitate?

Lets get this straight – the action UOP chooses here is financially worse for the company, worse for their students, and better for the US Government... Has anyone ever heard of a company voluntarily giving up money in hand for a questionable receivable?

This lawsuit lays out a rationale... UOP is not only trying to deceive their clients, but more importantly, the Department of Education and investors through manipulation of their reported numbers. By removing these early-withdrawing students from their loan rolls, this lawsuit suggests understatement of Cohort Default Rates...

By returning the money to the government, they are effectively prohibiting that person from being factored in their cohort default rate. This manipulation is a clear violation of the mandates of HEA.


Make no mistake, if Apollo loses its access to Title IX grants, it's done. UofP competes directly with CCs, but we shouldn't relish their possible demise. We are in no condition to enroll their 250,000 students.

Predictions for CCs during the economic crisis

Across the country, community colleges are facing a plethora of challenges: budget cuts, tuition increases, ballooning enrollment. Below are three facts an my predictions for their consequences. Next, I gaze into the crystal ball for two medium-term predictions and their consequences.


1. HS graduates flock to CCs. Facing university-price sticker shock and shrunken college savings plans, new HS grads are picking community colleges in record numbers.
Consequences:
- Transfer programs will balloon.
- Average age of transfer students will fall.
- Universities will be unprepared to accept a wave of transfer students which will begin in 2010.


2. Unemployed and underemployed workers swell CC ranks. It's a cliché because it's true; workers seek improved skills during crappy economic times.
Consequences:
- Career and tech programs will fill up and average ages will rise.
- Waiting lists will become common.
- Proportion of CC students with bachelor's degrees will rise as 'educated' students seek more useful skills.


3. Cost becomes increasingly important factor in student choice.
Consequences:
- CC tuition will increase by 5% on average nationwide.
- Pell Grants will increase faster than CC tuition in absolute terms (thank you, Obama).
- Pell Grants will increase slower than university tuition in absolute terms.
- 80+ private universities will close before fall 2009.


Predictions for the medium term (1-4 years)

4. CCs will neglect investment. How can they invest during budget cuts? Why invest when you have all the students you can handle?
Consequences:
- State funding for technology will shrink.
- For-profits will continue to eat CC's lunch in online learning.
- CCs will suffer when the economy rebounds.


5. Foreign countries will seek to reproduce the community college model in their countries.
Consequences:
- International consulting gigs for your scribe.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Stupid Criminals - take one

We all have guilty pleasures - stupid criminals are mine. The first in a series.

Marcus Schrenker was the man who had everything: beautiful wife, tons of money, chiseled physique. Unfortunately, he was victimized by the global financial crisis and his own greed and he got in trouble with the feds for fraud. Plus, his wife was divorcing him and somebody keyed his Lexus.

What's a charming daredevil to do? Head for the hills, of course. And luckily, he had a brilliant plan - he would fake his own death in a fake plane crash, and get away scott free. What could possibly go wrong?

Plenty - let's catalog the stupidity.

1. He alerted the aviation authorities that his plane was in trouble. Why is alerting the authorities part of your get-away plan? Why not crash (or land) the plane in the wilderness give yourself a couple of days for the getaway?

2. He bailed out of the plane too early. His best shot was to dump his plane in the Gulf of Mexico, which may have been his plan. If so, why jump out in Harpersville, AL, 250 miles from the sea? His plane didn't make it to the sea, it crashed in the FL panhandle so everybody could see he didn't really die.

3. He hitched a ride to his getaway with the cops. Apparently, he stumbled out of the swamp and flagged down a cop to give him a ride to his getaway motorcycle. Come on man, are you trying to get caught?

4. When you're on the lam, don't contact friends to complain of negative press. That's how they caught him, he sent an email from a public library terminal. Apparently they can track emails now, who knew?

5. If you're gonna kill yourself, do it like you mean it. He attempted to kill himself by slashing his wrist in a public campground. Maybe it was just a plea for help.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Way back in the good ol' days of 2008-09

It reminds me of my West Coast 9/11 experience. I arrived at work hours after the towers fell w/out hearing what had happened until I arrived. As always, I bought a coffee and newspaper and got on the bus. When I arrived at work, I stashed my newspaper and left work to watch CNN. Weeks later, when the world changed, I found the September 11th, 2001 newspaper and it described a world that no longer existed.

Thus it is with this Chronicle of Higher Education state-by-state budget analysis.



The Chronicle of Higher Ed published a surreal piece comparing 2008-09 higher education budgets to 2007-08, and lamenting meager growth. This brand-new analysis is obsolete at birth.

The map shows increases in most states' higher education budget. Since then, many states' higher ed budgets have been slashed in the current year, and will be torn asunder next year.

This map will be redder next year. Good to know how the past might have been.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Flaws inherent to direct comparisons between CC-student and university-student success

I experienced a visceral and negative reaction to this blog and particularly to this ridiculous statement, “Choosing a two-year college could actually harm students' long-term prospects.” The blog cites (and misinterprets) an excellent study on the topic. The study itself has some potential flaws as well.

First, I’ll discuss the study, then I’ll comment on the blog.

This excellent study by Harvard’s Bridget Terry Long and UC Davis’ Michal Kurlaender starts with the simple fact: Ohio students who begin transfer programs at CCs don’t earn as many bachelor’s degrees as students who start at universities. They attempt to decide whether CC students fail because CCs do a poor job of educating students, or because external risk factors harm students’ chances. They conclude that the former is at fault, harming students’ chances by 14.5%. I humbly disagree.

Retort #1: Long and Kurlaender define ‘success’ too narrowly.

This paper identifies ‘success’ too narrowly for the CC reality. The only possible ‘success’ in this paper is completed bachelor’s degree attainment, therefore relegating any other outcome as “failure.” At a university, success and failure is binary – graduate or don’t. But it isn’t that simple at a CC. Indeed, many positive outcomes for students would be classified as failures by this study. Students can change majors and switch from transfer to career/technical programs. Students can achieve meaningful careers after completing just a “transfer associate degree.” And short of any degree or certificate, students can secure living wage jobs after obtaining high-demand skills.

My tech guy at work is an example of the last ‘positive failure’. He is several classes short of finishing his Information Technology degree. He works full time for my CC’s IT department and make $60k per year. Conversely, the guy that made my latte this morning has a master’s degree in sociology. We could argue about which of these two made wiser academic choices, but I'd be wary about classifying my tech guy as a CC failure.

Certainly, bachelors degree attainment signifies a successful outcome for a CC transfer student. But it’s not the only potential successful outcome.

Retort #2: Long and Kurlaender fail to adequately consider all risk factors which disproportionately affect CC students.

In their paper, Long and Kurlaender acknowledge that selection bias (apples to oranges) is a problem with any study that attempts to compare CC and university students.

“[S]imple comparisons between two-year and four-year students, which suggest students who initially enroll at a community college do far worse, should be treated with caution. Additionally, unobservable differences between students appear to be important.”

As compared to university students, CC students tend to have increased risk factors which preclude them from finishing degrees: low income, first generation, full time jobs, poor academic preparation, etc. This study does a better job than most papers of its type, since it factors, “degree intent information from the college application and details about family income, high school preparation and achievement, and high school type.” It fails to adequately address additional risk factors including: working full time, having dependents, being a parent, attending part-time.

The study attempts to sidestep this research problem by comparing only CC students and “non-selective university” students, arguing that the difference between these students is negligible.

“As discussed above, previous empirical work suggest that community college students enter postsecondary schooling with lower academic credentials on average than their counterparts at four-year institutions (as measured by high school grade point average and ACT scores). However, the differences are not large between students at nonselective four-year universities in Ohio and those at community colleges. Thus, for most of our analysis we focus more explicitly on students at nonselective, four-year institutions as the main comparison group to community college students.”

Perhaps Ohio CC and non-selective university students are similar enough to be considered statistically identical. But in Washington state, such an assumption defies logic. And CC students have been found to be hugely different in this study of Boston’s educational system: “61% of community college enrollees were required to take developmental courses compared to… 25% of enrollees in 4-year institutions.”

Again, the researchers go to great lengths to adjust for these biases, but to a certain extent, we’re still comparing apples to oranges.

Retort #3: The blog entry shows clear design bias; it exaggerates the researchers’ findings and fails to incorporate the researchers’ cautions.


Here’s the ridiculous statement that set me off: “Choosing a two-year college could actually harm students' long-term prospects.” But never fear, by following the blogger’s advice, “students can take advantage of the low-cost classes at community colleges and still make it through to a prestigious degree.” The blogger raises the bar on worthwhile education; a mere bachelor’s degree isn’t enough to avoid failure. To be successful, one must earn a “prestigious degree” that will allow CC students to handle, “upper-class assignments at universities.”

Upper-class indeed.

The researchers warn in the abstract, “The results suggest that straightforward OLS (ordinary least squared) estimates are significantly biased.” In other words, suggesting that CCs harm student prospects is unwarranted and absurd.

Perhaps the author would have been better served by a less prestigious, more practical degree.

Thursday, January 8, 2009

Bad news for job seekers



Conventional wisdom has it that now is a bad time to be looking for a job in education. Anecdotal evidence suggests that many of our campus human resource departments have stopped hiring. But now, here's some numerical proof that there really are less jobs advertised in www.higheredjobs.com.

I've used the "Wayback Machine" at www.archive.org to search the archives of higheredjobs.com. Higheredjobs.com is the most frequented job source for job seekers (at least, the one I like best.) I search there because most colleges advertise there - way more than monster.com or chronicle jobs.

Above is a graph of the number of jobs advertised in higheredjobs.com around January 7th of each year since 2001. As you can see, higheredjobs.com has become more popular with HR departments since it's inception in 2001. It has had a steady rate of growth... up until this year.

This year, the number of jobs advertised not only broke the steady upward, it actually fell. And as more and more states cut education money, the number of jobs will continue to fall.

Last words: 1. The Wayback Machine is sweet. 2. I should go back to grad school.

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Wayback Machine: Sweet research tool

I just found the coolest web research tool - the Wayback Machine at archive.org.

Ok, ok, I didn't "find" it. I heard it on NPR. But still, it is a wealth of knowledge for those who don't think the web has enough information. Now you can go back in time and discover obsolete information!

Stay tuned for an impromptu research demonstration, brought to you by the Emissary.

Monday, January 5, 2009

Snow shuts CCs of Spokane for 6th day in 2008-09


The ongoing deluge of snow has shuttered CCs of Spokane for the 6th full or partial day of the school year. Spokane has suffered through record snowfall in the month of December. And it's expecting more snow in the next couple of days, then rain and possible flooding.

Whew.

The most recent shutdown was unique because it was ordered by Spokane County Sheriff Ozzie Knezovich (unofficially known as the sheriff with the coolest name in the west.)

Knezovich's statements suggest that he was less concerned about the colleges than the K-12 schools. The sheriff was concerned that buses would get stuck and kids wouldn't be able to scale the snow drifts and ice berm.

Crazy days. And for this educator, another day off.

Sunday, January 4, 2009

CCs brace for enrollment booms - here's why

This week, community colleges across the country will open with sharply higher enrollment, according to news stories from WA, MN, VA, NH, and CA.

CC enrollments are known to be counter-cyclical, they increase when the economy hits a rough patch. CC enrollment increases for three common reasons, plus a fourth that's appears to be novel with this downturn.

1. Unemployment Recessions force people out of work. Unemployed people seek new skills to get back into the workforce. The unemployed are particularly tempted by...

2. Short-term programs CCs offer a range of short-term options that attract re-tooling workers. CC certificates are available in as little as one quarter. And often, students get what they need w/out completing certificates - a welding class or CAD intro.

3. Low cost Obviously, CCs are the least expensive retraining option in America. This should give CCs a boost over for-profit institutions, but doesn't always.

4. Withering 529s Last and novel, CCs are benefiting from the crashing stock market, which didn't spare college savings accounts known as 529 plans. Since their inception in 1998, 529 plans have been increasingly popular since their inception in 1998 because, like a Roth IRA, they are free of capital gains taxes.

But 529s have suffered along with all stocks in the current recession - down a third this year alone, with more to come. Suddenly, mom and dad's saving isn't going to be enough for junior to attend State U, much less Private College. Economic realities may well alter the thinking (and the economic reality) of the class of 2009.

The 529 bust is a novel event. Very few students were enrolled during the last downturn (the dot com bust of 2000-1). And the effects of the 529 bust probably haven't been felt yet. 529s were doing well back in May when students were picking colleges; the stock market was still up around 13,000 (the DOW has fallen by an incredible 33% since then). We all know what's happened since.

The 529 issue will strain CCs to the breaking point in Fall 2009. All the more reason that CCs need to be protected from state budget cuts.

Friday, January 2, 2009

Texas CCs eye budget increase

Bucking the nationwide trend, Texas community colleges are banking on an increase in state funding for the next biennium. TCCs are asking for a a 25% increase ($595million), bringing the total state support to $2.3billion.

Unlike most states, Texas is flush with cash and has a $9billion rainy day fund.

Let's hope they use it wisely.